Summary
Small things can have very large effects. That is something which we were all unwillingly reminded of some years ago, when the COVID-19 virus spread around the globe, causing a pandemic with major societal changes. When it is placed side by side with the medieval outbreak of the Black Death, however, its impact once again seems somewhat small. Historians have long agreed that this pandemic shifted the course of global history, but up to this day, we are still trying to understand the precise impact of this catastrophe and explain why it could have such a tremendous effect.
From our most recent findings based on extensive literature reviews and all kinds of historical data, it has been concluded that for the case of Europe, a third to half of the population died following the Plague’s arrival on the continent around the year 1350. Following this catastrophe, population growth would be stunted for the remainder of the Middle Ages as many later outbreaks continued to take many lives. It has been estimated that it would have taken until the late fifteenth century for the European populations to return to post-Plague levels.
It has been believed that almost all of Europe experienced this demographic development, but a recent article has come to address this idea. By analysing not archival sources, but ancient pollen samples from all over Europe, this study has used data on changes in vegetation to estimate changes in European population sizes, which has resulted in some very interesting insights. Whilst confirming a population decline for most of Europe, the findings also indicate that notably Iberia and the Baltic coast area experienced demographic growth. This naturally leads us to wonder why these regions diverged from this general pattern.
To answer this question, this article approaches the topic from the level of theory. By combining neo-Malthusian theory on the spread of disease with Robert Bartlett’s idea that Iberia and the Baltic coast area were the ‘frontiers’ of medieval Europe, a framework is created for explaining why these regions uniquely experienced population growth at a time of general decline. Using literature on population densities and trade both in- and outside of these frontier zones, this frame is then fleshed out further. In the end, it is argued that the lower intensity of trade in these economically underdeveloped frontiers regions seems to be the main explanatory factor causing these unique demographic trends.
Geïnteresseerd geraakt en wil je meer lezen? De volledige paper (Engels) is hier te vinden.
Bron omslagfoto: The angel of death striking a door during the plague of Rome, 1894. Engraving by Jules Gabriel Levasseur, Wikimedia Commons.
Jesse Dijkshoorn heeft zijn bachelor Geschiedenis en research-master ‘Europe 1000-1800’ bij de Universiteit Leiden behaald. Momenteel werkt hij als promovendus aan de Rijksuniversiteit Groningen. Zijn voornaamste interesse is laatmiddeleeuwse, stedelijke geschiedenis en hij houdt zich nu bezig met onderzoek naar bestuur in de IJsselsteden tussen 1450 en 1600.
